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The current Figs. 1 and 2 have incorrect numbers shown on the purple bars. The source data was also incorrect in the original version of the Article. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Forecasts indicate that China's non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO₂ GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China's non-CO₂ GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today's cost-effective and technologically feasible CO₂ and non-CO₂ mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO₂ GHG emissions are driven largely by industrialmore » and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO₂ GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.« less

China is the world's largest consumer of room air conditioners, and it contributes about a quarter of global space cooling CO₂ emissions. We model the costs and benefits of recently proposed new room air conditioner minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) in China. Our results suggest that newly proposed MEPS brings accumulative CO₂ emissions reductions of 12.8% between 2019 and 2050, and accumulative bill saving of 2620 billion RMB to China's consumers. The benefits of the proposed MEPS decrease with longer MEPS revision intervals and increase with shorter intervals—indicating that the intervals should be balanced to maximize benefits while accommodating constraintsmore » due to air conditioner manufacturer design cycles. We also model potential nationwide benefits from higher MEPS. Across two increasingly aggressive MEPS scenarios, China's room air conditioner electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions in 2050 are both reduced by 15–53% compared to the proposed MEPS. The highest-efficiency scenario (reaching MEPS of annual performance factor 5.4 in 2025) provides the largest long-term national benefits. These results could inform development of a Chinese regulatory regime that effectively updates room air conditioner MEPS. Because China is the world's largest manufacturer of room air conditioners, the economic, energy, and emissions benefits resulting from higher Chinese MEPS could also have a global reach.« less

China's economy has entered a “new normal,” characterized by slower economic growth and widespread overcapacity in its industrial sectors. Nevertheless, construction of power plants, especially coal-fired plants, continues at a rapid pace. Our analysis examines the extent of overcapacity in China's regional electricity grids. We show that already in 2014, the average reserve margin across China's regional grids was roughly 28%, almost twice as high as a standard planning reserve margin in the U.S. In addition, we find large variations in reserve margins across regional power grids in China, with the highest reserve margin (64%) in the Northeastern grid. Thismore » paper examines future reserve margins across regions in China under three growth scenarios. The results suggest that the majority of China will not need new baseload coal power (at least for reliability purposes) before 2020, and potentially not until 2025, under the low- and mid-growth scenarios. Under the high-growth scenario, China's central and eastern regions will need to import more power or built new capacity by 2020. As China's energy sector enters this new normal, our results highlight the growing importance of establishing mechanisms — planning processes and markets — that coordinate generation and transmission investments across grid regions, and that align the country's energy sector investments with its longer-term air quality and climate goals.« less